Full model detail

Adequate

Country-specific absorption capacity. Reserve-currency status and market depth still absorb a great deal, but the debt burden and deficit leave less room than the headline suggests. Background context, never a trigger on its own.

Building

Dynamic stress across the long end, inflation expectations, energy, credit and fiscal structure. Each block combines level, velocity and acceleration rather than the level alone.

INSUFFICIENT DATA

Only 45% of the required inputs are available, below the 70% minimum. The score is shown for reference only.

0/5 channels · weak confirmation

Independent channels are counted separately: systemic stress is never declared from one extreme variable. Breadth counts channels scoring above the configured threshold.

INDETERMINATE

High only when the targeted market improved AND stress rose elsewhere. Simultaneous deterioration everywhere is classified as broadening stress instead.

Not absorbing

Absorption is measured separately from displacement, the two do not sum to 100.

0/4 international channels active

Measures the external environment only. Transmission is never classified from a single international variable, breadth is required alongside the weighted score.

Mild acceleration

Acceleration = 5-period velocity minus the previous 5-period velocity, normalised against each indicator's own history. Prior validation showed change and acceleration carry more information than absolute levels.

Low

Not how high stress is, but how close the system is to a region where small changes create disproportionately large responses. Initial calibration requiring validation.