Global Stress Propagation Monitor
Intervention activelive, 2026-08-20
Policymakers are intervening as market pressure rises.
US bond-market stress is rising and policymakers are acting on it. The model is tracking whether that pressure is absorbed, moves elsewhere or begins spreading through the global financial system.
Signal confidence is currently moderate because some market feeds are delayed or partial.
How serious is it?
How much pressure is building?63Pressure is risingLong-end Treasury pressure and energy are adding the most pressure right now.Are markets confirming it?53Partial confirmationOnly one market is reflecting the strain so far, which is not enough to call it confirmed.Is intervention working?0Relief has goneIntervention initially reduced pressure, but 100% of that improvement has since reversed.Is it spreading globally?59Starting to spreadJapan, credit and global liquidity indicators are beginning to move with the same pressure.
Where are we on the stress landscape?
The model maps the system according to how much pressure is building, how strongly markets are confirming it and how close conditions are to a nonlinear stress threshold.
Left to right: how much pressure is building. Front to back: how strongly markets are confirming it. Height: how close conditions are to a tipping region. Drag to rotate.
Pressure has eased and the system is moving away from the higher-risk region.
Early model surface. Shape will strengthen as historical observations accumulate.
Where could the pressure move next?
OilUnder pressureInflation expectationsWatchingUS long endElevatedUS dollarElevatedJapan / carry stressElevatedGlobal liquidityWatchingWhat changed?
- System Pressure fell 0 points to 63 since the previous model run.
- Policy Response fell 0 points to 75 since the previous model run.
- Market Confirmation fell 0 points to 53 since the previous model run.
What are we watching next?
- US long-term yields
- Can intervention hold them down?
- Dollar
- Is bond stress moving into the currency?
- Japan
- Are FX and rates beginning to destabilise carry positions?
- Global liquidity
- Are credit and volatility confirming broader transmission?